- 1) First, I would like to state No Recession is In Sight.
- The risk of a recession is overstated, as economic indicators suggest we are in the early stages of recovery rather than heading toward a downturn.
- 2) Tesla’s stock has experienced a dramatic decline of over 50% from its recent high, sparking concern among investors and analysts alike. However, this downturn appears to be a temporary setback rather than a sign of fundamental weakness.
1) First, I would like to state No Recession is In Sight.
The risk of a recession is overstated, as economic indicators suggest we are in the early stages of recovery rather than heading toward a downturn.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), which tracks economic activity on a month-to-month basis, had been signaling negative growth since June 2022. However, we are now emerging from this phase, indicating that the economy was in a rolling recession and is transitioning into a recovery mode. While some continue to voice recession concerns, the data does not support such fears. Additionally, we must recognize that we are in a period of economic expansion driven by innovation and technology, which is inherently deflationary and supports long-term growth.
Furthermore, the impact of recent tariff policies on GDP is minimal, as historical data from 2016 suggests. Inflation concerns are also exaggerated, given that oil supply remains ample. OPEC has announced an increase in production, and U.S. drillers are ramping up operations. A potential peace deal could further boost supply, helping to keep energy costs in check. At the same time, the tech-driven boom is accelerating productivity and efficiency across industries, further reducing inflationary pressures. With economic fundamentals improving, inflationary risks easing, and technology fueling expansion, the prevailing narrative of an imminent recession appears overblown. Current probability of US recession in 3-4 months stand at 32.85% according to RecessionAlert. In addition, DOGE-related laid off and federal employees accepted buyout offers total approximately 5% of the total federal civilian workforce. Total federal civilian workforce is approximately 1.87% of the entire US civilian workforce. Lastly, the stock and bond markets now fully pricing in 3 Fed Rate Cuts this year, and that bodes well for risk assets in general. REF: TheConferenceBoard, RessionAlert, OPEC
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Now, onto Tesla…Tesla’s Dramatic Price Drop: A Temporary Dip in a Long-Term Ascent
2) Tesla’s stock has experienced a dramatic decline of over 50% from its recent high, sparking concern among investors and analysts alike. However, this downturn appears to be a temporary setback rather than a sign of fundamental weakness.
According to Elon Musk, 2024 was a pivotal year for Tesla, laying the groundwork for 2025, which he deems the company’s most important year yet as it transitions from primarily an automaker to an AI-driven powerhouse. Analysts like Gary Black and Dan Ives echo this optimism, pointing to a confluence of positive catalysts that suggest Tesla’s growth trajectory remains intact. From regulatory tailwinds to groundbreaking product launches, Tesla is poised for a robust recovery, making this dip a compelling buying opportunity.
One key driver of Tesla’s resurgence is its push toward Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. Analysts like Black highlight the potential for a Trump administration to streamline federal processes, enabling Tesla to secure a nationwide unsupervised autonomy license—a game-changer for its valuation. Additionally, Tesla is likely to be the first to market with generalized unsupervised FSD by the end of fiscal year 2025, according to Ives. This leadership could pave the way for lucrative FSD licensing deals with one or more OEMs, expanding Tesla’s revenue streams beyond vehicle sales. Meanwhile, the market is beginning to recognize the value of FSD, alongside Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, as transformative AI assets that differentiate the company from traditional automakers.
Tesla’s product pipeline further bolsters its outlook. The upcoming $30-$35K compact vehicle, slated for launch in the first half of 2025, promises to expand Tesla’s total addressable market (TAM) by appealing to a broader, cost-conscious consumer base. Concurrently, the Model Y Juniper refresh is expected to accelerate sales growth, despite a temporary hit to Q4 2024 earnings. The older Model Y inventory is being intentionally kept low as Tesla prepares for the Juniper’s March 2025 delivery timeline—a delay from initial expectations but consistent with Elon’s track record of eventual delivery. Consumers, aware of the imminent upgrade, are holding off purchases, creating a short-term sales lull that masks the long-term potential of this revamped bestseller.
Beyond vehicles, Tesla’s advancements in AI and manufacturing signal a monumental growth phase. Optimus Version 2 is expected in 2026, with production ramping up as progress becomes more transparent. Unlike competitors merely discussing robotics, Tesla is actively building a production line for humanoid robots while advancing their AI capabilities—an unparalleled dual focus. Additionally, Tesla’s plans to produce lower-cost LFP battery cells in the U.S., backed by a recently filed patent, could disrupt the energy storage market and enhance margins. Analysts also point to the Delaware Supreme Court’s potential to overturn Chancellor McCormick’s 2018 compensation ruling in late 2025, reinstating Elon’s incentive package and boosting investor confidence. With these developments, Tesla is gearing up for what could be the largest production ramp in its history, solidifying its status as a manufacturing titan.
Tesla’s current stock price drop is a fleeting anomaly amid a transformative period. The convergence of FSD leadership, innovative product launches like the compact vehicle and Model Y Juniper, and groundbreaking strides in robotics and battery production paint a picture of resilience and ambition. As Musk has emphasized, Tesla’s evolution into an AI-driven company is underway, and 2025 will likely mark a turning point. For investors, this dip is not a warning but a rare chance to invest in a company on the cusp of redefining industries—an opportunity underscored by Tesla’s unmatched ability to innovate and execute on a grand scale. Below, you will find ARK Invest’s updated outlook for Tesla.
REF: ARK’s Full Report on Tesla, Tesla, Video with Cern Basher, Video with Dan Ive
Below please find an insightful analysis of TSLA with Cern Basher, of Brilliant Advice. Click onto picture below to access video. Lots of nuggets here. “Growth of Tesla stock mainly came from non-market hours.” Further below, you will find Dan Ives’ recent comments on TSLA.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Not investment advice. Please speak to your financial professional regarding your investments and investing. Investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For more information about the company mentioned above, please visit https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure.
Cybercab expected to be in Austin, TX in June 2025.
Tesla’s Daily Price Charts in 5-Year View and 2-Year View below. TSLA current price is extremely close to major support levels.
Len writes much of his own content, and also shares helpful content from other trusted providers like Turner Financial Group (TFG).
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